fishinfrenzymegawaysfree|中泰策略：“流动性外溢”效应下 预计A股和港股相对受益

Stock speculation to see Jin Kirin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, comprehensive, to help you tap the potential of the theme opportunity!

Source: Zhongtai Securities

The performance of large categories of assets in April suggests loose financial conditions in the United States.FishinfrenzymegawaysfreeThe reflexivity of

From the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, the core pricing factor of large categories of assets shifted from liquidity to fundamentals. Among them, the strong expectations and strong reality of the overseas economy in the first quarter can be attributed to the continued easing of financial conditions in the previous period.

At the same time, US financial conditions were further loosened in the first quarter, but unlike in the fourth quarter of last year, such easing has hidden dangers. (1) US bond interest rates and the dollar rose in the first quarter, and US financial conditions should have tightened, but strong US stock and commodity prices have further loosened financial conditions. (2) unlike the fourth quarter of last year, the easing of financial conditions in the first quarter may be "unhealthy", masking the fact that long-end interest rates continue to rise. (3) excessively loose financial conditions will restrict interest rate cuts. Historically, Fed interest rate cuts have often occurred when financial conditions have tightened or changed significantly, so overly loose financial conditions will in turn limit the further development of "interest rate reduction trading".

The performance of large categories of assets in April suggests that this hidden danger may become a short-term trading risk for some assets. (1) excessively high interest rates have disturbed US economic expectations, which has had an impact on assets that have benefited from strong reality and strong expectations of fundamentals since the first quarter. Developed market stocks, including US stocks, have fallen, and liquidity has spilled over to undervalued emerging markets, especially Hong Kong stocks and A stocks.FishinfrenzymegawaysfreeCommodities such as copper and crude oil also showed a phased correction. (2) the "reflexive" trading in the easing of financial conditions driven by the sharp rise in asset prices, which itself includes a correction in the price of assets with a larger increase in the previous period, which can partly explain the monthly correction in gold. (3) in stages, we think that the pricing logic of large categories of assets will return to "liquidity" from "fundamentals". First, interest rates on US debt that have continued to rise this year may have posed some challenges to the resilience of the US economy and inflation; second, US financial conditions have converged since April, both of which are conducive to rising expectations of interest rate cuts. (4) our expectations for the follow-up performance of major categories of assets are as follows: us Treasuries > emerging market equities > US stocks and developed market equities > gold > industrial products > US dollars.

The relative benefits of A shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected under the effect of "liquidity spillover".

On the basis of "increased volatility with top and bottom", we further emphasize the support of liquidity spillover to A shares. The main results are as follows: (1) the process of the return of large types of asset pricing logic from "fundamentals" to "liquidity" implies that the odds of funds will be higher than the odds. Compared with overseas markets, the current valuation quantiles of A shares and Hong Kong stocks are still at a low level, and we expect foreign capital to increase in stages. (2) there is also a trend of liquidity spillover between the domestic capital market and A-shares. This is mainly due to the "asset shortage" caused by the continuous decline of long-end interest rates in a loose monetary policy environment. (3) in addition to the passive liquidity spillover, we would also like to suggest that the year-on-year upside of macro data, including prices, in the second quarter has boosted A-share risk appetite. On the one hand, this is due to the increased contribution of the practical workload of infrastructure construction to the economy, on the other hand, it is also faced with a low base based on some macro data. Of course, since problems such as overcapacity and low property sentiment within the economy have not been substantially improved, we still regard the boost to the stock market from this improvement in economic data as "risk appetite" rather than molecular logic.

Configuration suggestion: dividend + undervalued domestic goods "extroverted" varieties intervene in every callback

The main line of our industry configuration in May is "asset shortage" and "odds trading". (1) under the logic of "asset shortage", we continue to be optimistic about the follow-up performance of dividend assets. (2) in terms of "odds trading", we draw attention to some domestic goods whose valuations are historically low, including pharmaceuticals, textiles and clothing, food and beverages, and there may be opportunities for valuation repair in the short term. (4) globally priced commodities and exports have recorded good growth recently, and extroverted varieties may face a correction in the short term during the transition from asset pricing logic to liquidity. However, it is important to note that extroverted varieties are still our favorite main line for the whole year, and can be involved in every callback.

Risk hint

The economy fell faster than expected, and policy contracted more than expected.